Escalation of the war on Iran is likely: The true aim is to make war on China
We are witnessing a replay of the situation before August 1914, when Germany's economic success & transport corridor plans were seen as lethal challenge to British hegemony requiring total war
On 28 February, the USA and Israel jointly attacked and bombed Iran, implementing Operation “Epic Fury”. Dubbed “Epstein Fury” by critics, key initial targets included the Supreme and religious leader of the country, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was assassinated by US missiles, when his residence in Teheran, the capital of Iran, was bombed. Khamenei Sr. died together with many young members of his family (his daughter, his son-in-law, his daughter-in-law and his 14-months old granddaughter, among others). His son was quickly appointed as his successor.
Another major target was a primary school in Minab, Southern Iran, which was singled out during a normal school day for bombing twice (with a delay of almost an hour in order to kill relatives and helpers), killing 168 primary school girls and others.
Bombings of thousands of targets continued throughout March 2026 (more than 13,000 locations were bombed according to the Pentagon). Many innocent civilians died, adding many war crimes to the US and Israeli record amongst a war that itself is illegal and not sanctioned by the UN. Due legal process does not apply to the US or Israel.
Bombing Metropolitan Tehran, one of the largest conurbations in the world (pop. ca. 17m)
The EU failed to condemn this US and Israeli war. No sanctions were imposed on the US or Israel.
Then, on 3 April, a US special force conducted a major operation to raid the Nuclear Technology Center at Isfahan, inside Iran. The goal was to extract Iranian enriched nuclear material, but this failed spectacularly, with several US helicopters and two C-130 Hercules transport planes shot down, and no nuclear material extracted (the death toll has remained undisclosed; the official Pentagon narrative is that this was a successful rescue operation of a soldier stranded in enemy territory).
The real surprise however was that in response to being so ferociously attacked, Iran bombed virtually all US military bases in the entire Gulf region, and in addition, all CIA-bases (whose locations are supposed to be secret). A BBC report of 1 June 2026 confirmed that at least “20 US military sites” in the region had been “damaged” since Isreal and the USA unleashed the war on Iran, with the damage of US sites “more extensive than publicly acknowledged” (BBC). The strikes hit US bases in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain and Oman. “The actual figure could be higher [than 20], with some analysts placing the number of bases hit as high as 28.”
“Vice-Admiral Mark Mellett, the ex-head of the Irish Defence Forces, told BBC Verify that the batteries are at the core of a “highly complex” regional defence network that cannot be “quickly or easily replaced”.
Iran also destroyed US refuelling and surveillance aircraft at Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia, leaving smoking craters where expensive and proud specialised aircraft used to stand. Fuel storage bunkers were destroyed, aircraft hangars wiped out and troop accommodation hit multiple times. In total at least 42 aircraft were destroyed or damaged since the Israeli-US attack on Iran, including F-15 and F-35 fighter jets, and dozens of MQ-9 Reaper drones, as well as at least one A-10 attack plane.
Pentagon estimates of the costs of Operation Epic Fury are at USD 29bn, and most of this seems to consist of “repair or replacement costs for equipment” that was destroyed by Iran.
Initially Iran aimed at overwhelming US air defense systems by sheer volume of missiles fired. However, several days later, Iran shifted to fewer but more precisely targeted missile salvos.
The Iranian strikes resulted in the almost complete destruction of three state-of-the-art anti-ballistic missile systems and several US key regional high-tech radar installations. This includes the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries, which cost ca. USD 1bn each and require a crew of 100 military each to operate.
Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, stated that
“the nations and lands of the region will no longer serve as shields for American bases… America will no longer have a safe place in the region for mischief and the establishment of military bases, and day by day it will drift further from its former position.”
Apparently the accuracy and devastation of Iranian strikes took the US military by surprise and it concluded that Iran was receiving advanced support by Russia and China, concerning both intelligence and weapons technology.
The strikes were so specific, accurate and devastating that the US military leadership essentially ordered many US bases in the region to be evacuated. In some cases, soldiers were instructed to take rooms in local hotels – but then these rooms were also targeted by Iran, suggesting more sophisticated information networks than anticipated.
Russian president Putin has since (5 June 2026) clarified that Russia has not provided any weapons to Iran during the entire period of conflict and that Iran had not requested any. However, the intelligence concerning US military targets is another matter – not mentioned by President Putin. When the UK and US military moved to supplying Ukraine with target information for long-distance missiles inside Russia and even used their military to operate them (under the guise of being “trainers” of Ukrainian troops), Russia stated that it reserved the right to respond in kind at a time and place of its choosing. That time and place had arrived with the war on Iran.
On 8 April, a ceasefire was announced, initially for two weeks, and it has been extended multiple times since. Yet, a shipping stand-off has continued and blocked much of the shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Ca. 1,500 ships are waiting in the vicinity in order to pass the Strait. President Trump announced on 13 April that a US-led naval blockade is being imposed, in an attempt to block Iranian shipping and thus foreign currency revenue (the “blockade of the blockade”).
However, China immediately announced that it will not accept the US Navy hindering or blockading its shipping access to Iran. On 14 April 2026, Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun stated:
“We have trade and energy agreements with Iran; we expect others not to interfere in our affairs. The Strait of Hormuz is open to us.”
On 24 April 2026, the US Treasury announced so-called secondary sanctions on Chinese companies importing Iranian oil. China responded soon after. On 2 May 2026, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued a formal prohibition order, instructing Chinese companies not to recognise, enforce or comply with specific US sanctions imposed on Chinese oil refineries for trading in Iranian oil. This was the first time China invoked its 2021 anti-sanction rules against US measures.
“Teapot” refinery in Liaoning province, China
While the shaky cease-fire was undermined by the dubious US retrospective claim that peace in Lebanon was not included in the deal, targeted bombing has sporadically continued, with Iranian retaliation following as recently as Sunday, 31 May – although the present state is still considered one of a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Isreal had quickly resumed its invasion, occupation and wholesale destruction of Lebanon, giving it the Gaza treatment. Even Beirut is currently being attacked by Israel and many Lebanese have lost their lives at the hands of the invading Israeli army.
Over the weekend of 30 and 31 May, the US had bombed an Iranian military site in the city of Goruk, near Iran’s southern coast, and also a communications tower on the Iranian island of Qeshm, which is an important site of Iranian refineries, oil processing and port facilities. The US army also targeted an Iranian oil tanker with an air-launched hell fire missile near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by hitting US military bases once again, including one of the US locations of the launchers of the missiles that had struck Iran, an airbase inside Kuwait, as well as a Mossad camp in Iraq which Iranian fighter jets targeted, to devastating (though not yet officially acknowledged) effect. Asked about it, President Trump said on 3 June: “They were slightly provoked because we took a strong action…; they were reciprocating.”
As negotiations continue according to Donald Trump, it becomes increasingly clear that there won’t be a sudden end to this war. The negotiation positions of both sides are too far removed from each other.
On Monday, 1 June 2026, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman had stated that the US was “constantly changing its views and putting forward new or contradictory demands” so that negotiations would naturally be “prolonged”.
As this report goes live, the tit-for-tat exchange in strikes continues, with international aircraft avoiding the Iranian perimeter carefully.
Disruption to International Trade
